This Saturday, I’ll be back at the same sports bar where I watched the Kentucky Derby. If you read my Derby column, I told you to throw out a couple of favorites (Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek), and keep Barbaro, despite history being against him. Unfortunately, I also told you that I like America’s favorite bet, the exacta. The exacta always seems do-able, and offers a chance to win some real dollars. And in a field of 20, what were the chances of hitting the Trifecta? Sad to say, that darn Bluegrass Cat spoiled my day. This was a horse that, by all reports, was “the bust of 2006.” That’s why it’s called gambling. But Triple Crown races are events, and, if you are a sports fan, you’ve got to bet the Preakness.

This time, it’s all about value. Sure, Barbaro looked great in the Kentucky Derby, but is he the sure thing that many analysts and bettors make him out to be? Well, maybe. Which is the reason you’ll never get value betting on him this Saturday. At best, he’ll go off at even money. Keep in mind, until Smarty Jones won in 2004, it had been 25 years since an odds-on-favorite won the Preakness Stakes. You’ll hear a lot about “The Bounce Factor,” which says that horses tend to regress after particularly strong races, especially when they are coming back on short rest. And Barbaro is a horse that has never run with fewer than five weeks of rest.

Only three horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby will run in the Preakness, the smallest number in the last quarter century. So, given that, the odds would be better that a horse would break that 21 out of 22 streak which I mentioned earlier. Which new horses are possible contenders? Most analysts think Bernardini is the best of the newcomers. The term “Speed Freak” has been used for Diabolical, and that always perks up my ears. Like Now likes to gun it from the start, so, maybe, he’ll take the lead and keep it. Nothing about the other new horses excites me.